Keeneland Pick 4 Picks & Analysis | Races 2–5
Keeneland Race 2 — Pick 4, Leg 1 Using: 3, 5, 11, 13
We’re going four deep because trusting maiden claimers is how you develop trust issues. #3 Swift Speed debuts for Mike Maker with Johnny Velazquez aboard—enough credentials to get past our notoriously indifferent security department. #5 Made Up Stories brings a bullet workout and early speed for Larry Rivelli; we’d prefer she save the fiction for her autobiography and show us something real. #11 Hormesis gets class relief after facing tougher company at Saratoga. Sometimes the answer is simply finding less intimidating coworkers. #13 Epic Spender returns from a long vacation for Steve Asmussen with early speed shown in her lone start. Hopefully she spent the time getting fit. We’ve already got the spending part covered.
Keeneland Race 3 — Pick 4, Leg 2 Using: 2, 6
#2 Banned for Life drops in class and returns to dirt with the speed to make everyone else chase him. A name like that suggests he’s already familiar with track security—hopefully they let him finish before escorting him out. #6 Murdock gives us a different trip: tactical enough to stalk the speed and get first crack if the leaders start making regrettable decisions. Rivelli and Loveberry handle the arrangements. We also like #5 Map to the Stars, but we’re keeping this leg to two horses. He’s the uncomfortable cut, which means we’ll spend six furlongs pretending we’re completely fine with it.
Keeneland Race 4 — Pick 4, Leg 3 Using: 4, 7, 8
Off the turf and onto the dirt—because apparently handicapping the original race wasn’t enough entertainment. #8 Ellesmere Island brings proven dirt form, including a runner-up finish in New York, with Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz handling the paperwork. She has a convincing case for enjoying the change of scenery. #4 Eat Hay Run has finished second twice this year; we admire the consistency but would appreciate a little less professional courtesy at the wire. The dirt is the question, and Jose Ortiz gets to find the answer. #7 Indomiknow arrives off three straight fourths, a troubling commitment to finishing just outside the conversation. Johnny Velazquez takes the assignment—we’re paying for the possibility that she finally breaks the routine.
Keeneland Race 5 — Pick 4, Leg 4 Using: 3, 8, 10, 11
Four chances to get out of here with something besides a story. #3 Salty Viking makes our ticket for Joe Sharp—an appropriate name for what we’ll become if we get beat at the wire. #8 Breadcrumb Trail gets Brian Hernandez Jr.; ideally those breadcrumbs lead to the cashier instead of the parking lot. #10 Farrokh brings Jose Ortiz aboard for Eddie Kenneally, while #11 Junction gives us Irad Ortiz and another Joe Sharp runner. And then there’s #5 Wild Streak, the first-time starter we like enough to worry about but aren’t using. We’re hoping he needs a race to figure things out. If he comes out knowing everything, expect a brief interruption while we reconsider our qualifications.
Complete Pick 4 - 3,5,11,13 / 2,6 / 4,7,8 / 3,8,10,11
$48 at 50¢, or $96 at $1.
That’s our Pick 4. Playing Pick 3s, exactas or trifectas? These are the horses we’re working with—build your own trouble ;-)
Keeneland Early Pick 4: Three Legs of Hope and a Mouthful of Dirt
Ugh!! Well, that was worth the price of admission. We were live into the last leg of Keeneland’s early Pick 4, looking at possible payouts of $329.40, $149.92, $130.88, and $146.46. Not bad for a $48 ticket. What did we collect? Bupkis. The #4 went basically gate to wire while I sat there remembering that, yes, I had identified him as the speed of the race. Unfortunately, I liked the #3 better. I also figured the #4 would get bet down from his 9/2 morning line didnt want that favorite in my final figures . . .Naturally, he drifted to 7-1, because apparently everyone else forgot he was the speed, too. Anyway I’ll be picking up my teeth and heading home.