KEENELAND, SUNDAY, OCT 18
An early Pick 5, a late Pick 4, and a fifth race that appears to have misplaced its adult supervision.
Early Pick 5, Races 1 through 5 | 50¢ base | $240
R1: 2,3,5,6,7
R2: 5,8,9
R3: 1,2,4,8 - Oh man! Beat by a 36-1 shot! Our 2 finished 2nd - If your gonna lose . . . .
R4: 1,4,7,8
R5: 1,9
Late Pick 4, Races 6 through 9 | 50¢ base | $96
R6: 2,7,8,10
R7: 4,5,8,9
R8: 2,3,6
R9: 7,9,11,13
Total ticket investment: $336
Possible R5 hedges: If we’re alive into the final leg of the Pick 5, we may consider separate win bets on #7 Sumood, #3 Tonka Warrior, or #6 Green Light. Nothing automatic. We’ll look at the live odds, potential Pick 5 returns, and how much protection makes sense before deciding.
R1: 2,3,5,6,7
Carol’s Melody brings the most directly relevant recent effort, finishing second by a half-length at today’s seven-furlong distance. Bolt Dior returns from a break after winning a 6½-furlong allowance and offers an interesting alternative if ready. Alta Avenue switches back to dirt after a runner-up finish in a turf sprint, while Miss Enchanted and No What Ifs get relief from allowance company after disappointing efforts. We’re spreading because several have a plausible rebound in them. Ideally, one will notify us before the eighth pole.
R2: 5,8,9
Wild Acclaim comes off a third against similar claiming company at Churchill, where she waited for room before splitting horses and gaining late. That gives her a solid recent dirt effort to build on. Song of Songs returns from a summer break with Saez aboard and enough established ability to fit, although she needs to come back ready. Spun Up switches from turf to dirt and has competitive back figures for this group. Three different approaches to the same problem, which is finding someone willing to finish first rather than submit another respectable application.
R3: 1,2,4,8
Bestfriend Rocket drops following a claim out of a $32,000 race, where he finished third after waiting for room. Excel Calculator also gets class relief after a fourth in starter company and picks up Irad Ortiz Jr. Brigadier General needs to rebound from a poor Saratoga effort, but his better dirt races make him dangerous if he rediscovers them. Company You Keep was beaten only 1½ lengths last time despite early trouble, making the fifth-place finish more useful than it first appears. This is a race where reading only the finishing positions could get expensive.
R4: 1,4,7,8
We’re giving Lindenborg a chance to improve with the switch from turf to dirt and the move into maiden claiming company. Smart N Centsible also changes surfaces after a rough debut in which he raced wide and was steadied before fading. His subsequent works offer some encouragement, but he needs a substantial step forward. Croatoan and Informer are the newcomers, bringing Saez and Irad into a field whose experienced runners haven’t exactly frightened anyone away. Sometimes the most attractive thing on a résumé is that there’s nothing on it yet.
R5: 1,9
This is where we narrow the ticket and potentially begin negotiating with ourselves. Johny’s Rendezvous finished fourth in a strong Churchill turf allowance, beaten two lengths with a 110 figure. The rail gives him an opportunity to save ground behind the pace. Mesero cuts back after finishing fourth, beaten less than two lengths, in the Grade 3 Singspiel at Woodbine. He brings a stakes foundation and gets Irad for this shorter assignment.
The possible hedge horses, not on our Pick 5 ticket: #3 Tonka Warrior owns a powerful last-out 113 figure from his close fourth in Saratoga’s West Point Stakes and is already on our Bomb Squad list. #6 Green Light finished second in the same Churchill race as Johny’s Rendezvous, rallying from well back after a lengthy layoff. #7 Sumood needs to rebound from a poor Kentucky Downs effort, but his better form keeps him in the discussion.
If we reach this race alive, we’ll consider those three for separate win bets at worthwhile prices. We’re leaving the decision open until we can see the actual numbers. Panic is available all day; value occasionally requires patience.
R6: 2,7,8,10
Appeals to Me brings a strong debut, finishing second by a neck on dirt after taking the lead late. She gets Irad for Brad Cox and sets a meaningful standard. Blazing Sunset finished second in her Kentucky Downs debut and now needs to transfer that ability onto dirt. First Look is an interesting newcomer for Brisset, with a bullet gate work over this track that merits attention. Georgy Girl adds another debut runner from the Mark Casse barn. Two with experience, two with possibilities, and four chances to avoid saying, “Where did that one come from?”
R7: 4,5,8,9
Pretty Tapit arrives off a commanding win at today’s 1½-mile turf distance, drawing clear by more than seven lengths. This is tougher company, but the stamina question has been answered. Fionn brings graded stakes experience and comes off a fifth in the Grade 2 Flower Bowl, beaten less than three lengths. Golden Sunshine, another Bomb Squad selection, has already finished second over this course and distance in the Bewitch and comes off another graded stakes placing. Speed Shopper won that Bewitch and returns to grass after an unsuccessful dirt experiment against Grade 1 opposition. We’re willing to forgive that detour. Everyone takes a wrong exit occasionally.
R8: 2,3,6
Ring Curl gets Jose Ortiz and needs to recover his better form after a disappointing effort on a wet track. Grande Sorpreso drops from allowance company after fading behind considerably tougher opposition, giving him a chance to be more effective here. Kid Twist finished third last time after getting bumped and steadied at the start, then rallying wide. The cutback to six furlongs makes a cleaner break important, but the effort gives us something to work with. Nobody here requires a miracle, although a punctual departure would be appreciated.
R9: 7,9,11,5
Time in Motion is the clear starting point after missing by a nose at Churchill while earning an 87 figure. He circled wide, took the lead, and got caught late, leaving a strong case for another big effort. Rivelli can improve after finishing fourth in a Kentucky Downs turf mile. Bold Speaker gets another chance with Gaffalione after showing interest around the turn before flattening last time. Epic Roll finished second in his latest Kentucky Downs start, well behind the winner but four lengths clear of third. His figures need improvement, but he has shown he can stay involved around two turns. Time in Motion brings the strongest paperwork. The other three are welcome to surprise us, preferably while we’re still holding a live ticket.