đź’Ł THE BOMB SQUAD SUNDAY, OCT 18
Four tracks. Five shots at making the favorites somebody else’s problem.
Our targets:
đź’Ł Keeneland Race 5 #3 TONKA WARRIOR
Morning line: 15-1 | Want: 12-1 or better - SCRATCHED
His last start was a fourth in Saratoga’s West Point Stakes, beaten just 1¼ lengths behind Spirit of St Louis. That earned a 113 Equibase speed figure the highest last-out figure in this field. Before that, he won twice and missed another victory by a nose at Canterbury. There’s enough pace signed on to give his late run a chance, and post three offers an opportunity to save ground. The catch: he’s winless in ten starts at today’s distance, so we’re demanding compensation for that little personality defect. At 15-1, we can discuss it. At 4-1, he can discuss it with somebody else.
đź’Ł Keeneland Race 7 #8 GOLDEN SUNSHINE
Morning line: 10-1 | Want: 8-1 or better - NOT TODAY . . . DIDNT PUT UP THE EFFORT
She finished second in the Grade 3 Ladies Marathon last time despite traffic in upper stretch. More relevant to today’s assignment, she was second over this course and 1½-mile distance in the Grade 3 Bewitch, beaten just 1¼ lengths by today’s rival Speed Shopper. That gives us actual evidence she belongs here, rather than a pedigree chart and a prayer. Luis Saez takes the mount, and her recent figures keep her within striking distance. She hasn’t won this year, which is annoying, but at least she keeps attending the awards ceremony. We’re betting she finally gets called up first.
đź’Ł Belmont Race 7 #6 SPECIAL OPS
Morning line: 8-1 | Want: 8-1 or better - Got 4th
He won here last month after an awkward start, advancing from tenth early to take command and draw away by 1½ lengths. That 90 Equibase figure tops this field’s last-out numbers, and his earlier close third at Oaklawn produced a 93, so the improvement has some supporting paperwork. Dylan Davis stays aboard following the claim by Bruce Brown. He steps up from a nonwinners-of-two claiming race, and today’s shorter six-furlong trip gives him less time to recover if he botches the break again. Still, at 8-1, this looks like a horse getting priced for his résumé while the others get priced for their references.
đź’Ł Gulfstream Race 5 #10 BANNEKER
Morning line: 10-1 | Want: 10-1 or better - Got 4th
He comes off a gate-to-wire Tapeta win with a 96 Equibase figure, the highest last-out number in this group. Edwin Gonzalez returns, and the outside draw gives him a chance to assess the inside speed before committing. Now the fine print: today is turf, and he’s winless in six grass starts. His third in a five-furlong turf allowance here in May provides some encouragement, but carrying his synthetic form onto grass is the gamble. Other speed could also make life uncomfortable. This is a price-dependent swing, not permission to chase him down the odds board. Ten-to-one buys some uncertainty; three-to-one buys an argument.
đź’Ł Santa Anita Race 5 #7 MUBTADAA
Morning line: 12-1 | Want: 12-1 or better - Sitting 4th at the top of the stretch @ 34-1, I thought maybe . . . . maybe we had something - he thought otherwise
His latest fifth came in a turf mile, where he challenged for the lead before flattening out, beaten only 2½ lengths with a 106 Equibase figure. Two starts back, he finished just 1¾ lengths behind Nasty Habit in a five-furlong turf sprint despite tight quarters. Returning to six furlongs gives him a workable middle ground, and the pace pressure involving horses such as Jetovator, Regal Patriot and Double Jab could reward a patient trip. He’s eight and winless this year, so we’re not pretending we discovered the next superstar. We’re asking an experienced professional to work six furlongs before returning to his lawn chair.