Keeneland | October 22
Nine races, a few comeback stories, and several horses we’d appreciate seeing finish what they started. Selections are listed in preference order; build your combinations around the opinions you share.
R1: 1, 5, 7, 6
R2: 5, 8, 6, 4
R3: 5, 1, 8, 6
R4: 9, 3, 4
R5: 6, 4, 10
R6: 3, 4, 5
R7: 6, 1, 3
R8: 2, 3, 4
R9: 3, 4, 2, 7
R1 - 1, 5, 7, 6
#1 Revel Toast gets the nod dropping from a $50,000 claiming race to $30,000. Her latest effort produced the best last-out speed figure in this field, and she has a seven-furlong win on her record. Jose Ortiz can use the inside draw to establish position without making this harder than necessary.
#5 Sweet Bebsi has back figures that fit, but needs to improve on her sixth here earlier this month. #7 Ashes and Diamonds arrives off a Churchill win and makes her first start since being claimed by Steve Asmussen; the tougher company is the question. #6 Keen Gal also changes barns through a claim and shortens up after contesting the pace at a mile.
A reasonable opener, provided nobody mistakes the first turn for the finish line.
R2 - 5, 8, 6, 4
#5 Borax improved considerably in his second start, finishing second at Churchill after a troubled debut. He kept running late last time, and the additional half-furlong gives him an opportunity to build on that effort. Blinkers go on, with Luis Saez staying aboard.
#8 With You is an interesting first-time starter for Eddie Kenneally. The worktab includes a bullet three-furlong move October 18 and a bullet five-furlong drill earlier in the month. #6 Prateen switches from a turf-route debut to a dirt sprint and drops into maiden claiming company. #4 Big Star Bound, another debut runner, brings Wesley Ward, John Velazquez, and some sharp local works.
Borax has the experience. The newcomers haven’t had a chance to disappoint anybody yet.
R3 - 5, 1, 8, 6
#5 Get Them Roses finished third here against $50,000 maiden claimers and now drops to $20,000. His latest 78 speed figure stacks up well, and he has already shown he can handle two turns on this track. That makes him the starting point.
#1 My King Air returned from a lengthy absence with a close second sprinting at Churchill despite stumbling at the start. He can move forward with that race behind him, although stretching to nine furlongs presents a new test. #8 Stakeholder needs to rebound from a dull return, but his spring runner-up finish at Keeneland makes him worth another look. #6 Obra Prima gets further class relief after a wide trip against $30,000 maiden claimers.
Get Them Roses has a suitable assignment. Delivery is still required.
R4 - 9, 3, 4
#9 Gut Reaction showed speed and finished second in his debut going a mile at Churchill. He was clearly beaten by the winner, but also finished comfortably ahead of third. With that education behind him, he gets our vote to take another step forward.
#3 Sunfyre showed mild late interest in his six-furlong debut. The longer distance gives him a different assignment and a chance to improve for Ian Wilkes. #4 Cicero Ave owns the strongest debut speed figure of these three after finishing third at Churchill, and his late progress makes the stretch-out interesting.
The outside draw gives Gut Reaction something to negotiate. We like him; we’d still prefer he avoid a scenic tour.
R5 - 6, 4, 10
#6 Hereforagoodtime comes off a half-length defeat in a longer Churchill turf allowance, earning a 101 speed figure. She moved into the lead before being caught and now shortens to nine furlongs with Tyler Gaffalione returning. That recent effort earns her the top spot.
#4 Cliffs has the ability to threaten, including a narrow second in the Grade 1 American Oaks. She returns from a layoff after flattening out at Churchill in June, so readiness matters. #10 Just Aloof steps out of graded stakes company after two disappointing Saratoga efforts. Her close fourth in the Edgewood earlier this year shows what she can do when right.
Hereforagoodtime brings the current form. The other two bring résumés that deserve more than a quick glance.
R6 - 3, 4, 5
#3 Getaway Girl made a promising debut, finishing second at Churchill after tracking the pace and closing the gap late. Her 77 speed figure gives her a solid foundation against this group. Now she needs to carry that ability around two turns.
#4 Lucerra has finished third in both starts, improving her figure the second time while keeping on through the stretch. She has enough early involvement to secure a useful position. #5 Diva Warrior overcame a squeezed start to rally for second in her debut. Irad Ortiz takes over for Brad Cox, and the added distance gives her a chance to put that finishing effort to better use.
Three developing fillies, each with something to recommend her. Getaway Girl gets first billing.
R7 - 6, 1, 3
#6 Atropa returns from a long layoff, but her best form makes her compelling. She won her maiden at this course and distance by ten lengths, then missed by only a half-length in the Grade 2 Golden Rod. Jose Ortiz reunites with her for Cherie DeVaux. The ability is there; the question is how much arrives on the first day back.
#1 American Pearl also returns from a lengthy break. She has a Keeneland second and a Churchill maiden win on her record, with an inside draw that could help her save ground. #3 Leinani returns to dirt after a turf try and has competitive main-track allowance form for Chad Brown.
Atropa has the biggest calling card. We’re hoping she remembers where she put it.
R8 - 2, 3, 4
#2 Clock Tower comes off a Kentucky Downs win and previously missed by a half-length at Saratoga after encountering traffic. His ability to settle behind horses and finish gives Jose Ortiz options in this turf sprint. He gets the narrow preference in a field with plenty of legitimate opposition.
#3 Golden Afternoon finished second in the Grade 2 Turf Sprint at Kentucky Downs and now gets Irad Ortiz. A repeat of that effort puts him firmly in the picture. #4 Master of Light has won his last two, including a turf sprint at Ellis, and is two-for-two at today’s distance. This is a tougher group, but he arrives moving in the right direction.
Clock Tower is the pick. Nobody in this race appears interested in making his afternoon easy.
R9 - 3, 4, 2, 7
#3 Sock Monkey is our rebound choice after a disappointing dirt effort at Churchill. Her earlier third on turf at Kentucky Downs showed a better finish despite trouble, but she still has to prove she can reproduce that effort on the main track. We’re taking a stand on improvement, not pretending the last race was pretty.
#4 She’s Good Trouble also needs to progress from that Churchill maiden, where she advanced on the turn before fading. Irad Ortiz takes over for her second start. #2 Spur of the Moment is the obvious recent-form threat after finishing second at Keeneland with an 82 figure; stretching from six furlongs to two turns is her main question. #7 Kihei Kiana finished ahead of Sock Monkey and She’s Good Trouble at Churchill, moving up to fourth despite a wide trip.
Sock Monkey gets our vote, but Spur of the Moment supplies the strongest recent evidence.