BELMONT, SUNDAY, OCT 18
An early Pick 5 and a Pick 4 starting in R5. Because apparently one opportunity to question our judgment wasn’t enough.
Early Pick 5, Races 1–5 | 50¢ base | $192
R1: 1,2,3,5
R2: 2,3,4,5
R3: 2,3
R4: 2,5,6
R5: 1,3,4,5
Pick 5 $264 - The 1,4 or 5 would have paid almost double that or more - but hey we'll take it!
Pick 4, Races 5–8 | 50¢ base | $56
R5: 1,3,4,5
R6: 1,11
R7: 3,7
R8: 4,5,6,8,10,11,12
Total investment: $248
These are our tickets. Additional horses mentioned below are options for your own wagers. These picks are in post order - you pick your own preference :-)
R1: 1,2,3,5
Sister Jean nearly graduated last time, taking the lead late before getting caught by a nose. Stand the Rain finished fifth in that same race, beaten only 1½ lengths after coming five wide into the stretch, so a small change in trip could reverse their fortunes. Home Wrecker brings early speed from the rail and could make things uncomfortable if allowed to settle. Mistborn gets Prat for Chad Brown after finishing third against maiden claimers. She needs to handle the rise in company, but her figures fit. Four ways through the opener, which is our polite way of saying nobody here has earned our complete trust.
R2: 2,3,4,5
Dear Chairman arrives off a Saratoga claiming win, moving into Linda Rice’s care and getting Prat. He earned that victory with a wide rally, although today’s company asks more of him. Caddiemaster finished third in the race that also featured Sunday Boy and Shadow Dragon, giving him the strongest recent result among those three. Sunday Boy was briefly steadied in upper stretch before weakening, while Shadow Dragon needs to rebound from a disappointing effort following the claim. We’re covering improvement, current form, and a little professional embarrassment. Sometimes that last one is a powerful motivator.
R3: 2,3
Arabian Power lost the bob last time after pressing the pace, and his recent figures make him the established horse to beat. Eske Castle makes his first start since December, when he missed by only a neck on synthetic. First Lasix and the move to dirt add variables, but he showed enough speed and ability in that debut to make the ticket.
Another horse we like, not on our ticket: #6 Frenchquarter Note. He drops from maiden special weights, returns as a gelding, and picks up Prat. His debut was much better than his second start, so there’s a reasonable rebound case. Whether the equipment adjustment improves his attitude is between him and his therapist.
R4: 2,5,6
Heirsuta is the logical starting point after finishing second in her debut at Saratoga. She showed tactical speed and kept trying, and Brown now stretches her out with Prat aboard. Norah Begorrah was favored in that same race but broke a little slowly and traveled wide before finishing fifth. We’ll give her another chance to justify the original enthusiasm. Inside Edge switches from turf to dirt after showing speed in her debut, and her recent work includes a bullet five furlongs. She has something to prove, but at least she’s been studying for the exam.
R5: 1,3,4,5
This race reunites several runners from the same Saratoga event. Bryant and Cooper missed by a nose after rallying from last, while Starlight Dancer finished third, beaten less than a length, despite going wide into the stretch. Paula’s Choice was only 1¼ lengths behind the winner after a slow start and a wide second turn. Gallega finished sixth but was beaten just 2½ lengths after racing closer to the pace. These aren’t enormous gaps. A different trip could reshuffle the entire committee, and we’re using all four on both tickets.
R6: 1,11
Annotate comes off a close second over this course, finishing just a half-length behind Forecheck while showing good courage. That 76 figure gives her a strong recent foundation. Kinboshi finished third behind Tiger Line and Forecheck at Saratoga, beaten less than a length after a wide stretch run. There’s a useful common opponent connecting the two, and both have shown
R7: 3, 7
#3 Red State nearly won last time, taking the lead in the stretch before getting caught late. Today we’d appreciate him holding that thought until the wire. #7 Celestial Glaze missed by just a neck after racing close to the pace at seven furlongs. Carmouche stays aboard, and the cutback may help him finish the assignment.
R8: 4, 5, 6, 8, 10, 11, 12
#4 Dover Street returns to maiden company after the Grade 2 Pilgrim, where a slow start and clipped heels turned his afternoon into an obstacle course. #12 Raise the Roof brings turf-mile experience, having rallied for second despite getting bumped and checked early. We’re spreading seven deep here because apparently “all of them make me nervous” counts as a handicapping opinion.