Belmont Oct 17 - Two Tickets, Eleven Opportunities to Question Our Judgment
Early Pick 5 — Races 1–5 | 50¢ base | $192
R1: 3, 6 R2: 1, 3, 4. R3: 2, 3, 5, 6. R4: 1, 3, 6, 8. R5: 2, 4, 5, 7 . . . That middle leg gave us a punch in the throat.
Late Pick 4 — Races 8–11 | 50¢ base | $96
R8: 2, 5, 7, 9 R9: 1, 4 R10: 1, 3, 4, 7 R11: 2, 4, 6, 10
Total investment: $288
Those are our tickets. The race-by-race thoughts follow so you can build your own, trim ours, or identify precisely where you think we’ve lost our minds.
Race-by-Race Commentary
Race 1 — Using 3, 6Commuted (#6) brings the strongest recent figures, with a 104 last out and a 99 three-race average. Breslau (#3) is our attempt to interrupt the obvious: his recent numbers need improvement, but he has back form that makes him worth including. One brings the credentials; the other needs to remember where he put his.
Race 2 — Using 1, 3, 4Delightful Flame (#1) brings early speed and consistent figures, while Gift of Gab (#4) comes off the strongest last-out number in this field. River Seine (#3) completes our coverage with competitive pace figures. Three ways through, provided they don’t spend the opening quarter trying to settle a personal disagreement.
Race 3 — Using 2, 3, 5, 6At a mile and a quarter, there’s plenty of time for something irritating to happen. Le Gris (#5) has the strongest lifetime figure of our four, while Ambition (#6) matches his last-out 94. Missouri River (#3) enters off a competitive 91, and Systemic Change (#2) gets another chance despite a disappointing latest effort. We’re spreading because “I knew I should’ve used that horse” is getting old.
Race 4 — Using 1, 3, 6, 8Seat At the Table (#6) earns attention with consistent recent figures, and Notable Exchange (#1) belongs in the conversation. Planet Clare (#8) comes off a field-best 95, while Greyjoy (#3) is the less obvious inclusion who needs to improve. We’re leaving Lady Firefoot (#5) out despite competitive numbers—a decision she is welcome to take personally after the finish.
Race 5 — Using 2, 4, 5, 7Bite and Strike (#4) brings strong, steady recent figures, with Calvin’s Ride (#2) and Mission Improbable (#5) close enough to make this interesting. Shape Note (#7) needs a rebound, but his better efforts earn him a spot. If we’re alive here, expect calm, measured analysis delivered while standing six inches from the television.
Race 6 — Preference: 7–5–1–6City Blocks (#7) gets our vote to rebound for Linda Rice and Manny Franco. Her latest figure isn’t flattering, but her better races make her a serious player here. Will Not Be Swayed (#5) is the main danger and comes in off the stronger last-out performance. Meg’s Foxy Grey (#1) is next, followed by Mascara (#6), whose early speed could put her in the picture. We’re siding with City Blocks—hopefully she spends the afternoon running around them rather than stopping at every intersection.
Race 7 — Preference: 1–7–2–6Carc Brothers (#1) gets the nod with consistent recent figures and Franco aboard for Rob Atras. Interceptor (#7) is the biggest threat, bringing a last-out 107 that deserves respect. Mutaawid (#2) and Write Off Jerry (#6) round out our four, with Jerry’s recent numbers making him a dangerous fourth choice. At a mile and a half, there’s enough time to feel confident, panic, recover, and start negotiating with the racing gods.
Race 8 — Using 2, 5, 7, 9The late ticket opens with an opinion. Beira (#9) and Despo’s Dream (#5) offer competitive recent figures, while Bourbon Serengeti (#2) adds another possibility. Bam’s Bliss Kiss (#7) is the reclamation project: her latest numbers are ugly, but the older form gives us a reason to keep digging. Leaving Snide (#3) out makes this a deliberate swing. Nobody ever accused this ticket of trying to win a popularity contest.
Race 9 — Using 1, 4Georgia Magic (#1) brings the strongest three-race average in the field and plenty of early pace. Magnanimous Max (#4) comes off an improved 96 and provides our alternative. This is where we narrow the ticket and politely request that everyone else respect our budget.
Race 10 — Using 1, 3, 4, 7Unit Economics (#7) offers consistent recent figures for Chad Brown, while Paros (#3) and Hammerhead (#4) arrive off strong 106 and 105 efforts. Highlands Way (#1) gives us Franco and Pletcher with numbers that keep him within reach. A competitive leg, and an excellent place to discover whether our earlier confidence was professionally justified or medically concerning.
Race 11 — Using 2, 4, 6, 10Secured Landing (#4) brings the strongest recent average of our quartet. Normandy Coast (#2) fits on figures, Tapwrits Temper (#6) enters off a narrow last-out win, and Shoot the Nickel (#10) gives us another chance at a rebound. Four chances to finish the job. We’d appreciate one of them taking that responsibility seriously.