Belmont Oct 22
Eight races, a few logical favorites, and a couple of prices worth a second look. The selections are ranked in preference order—build your combinations however you like.
R1: 5, 1, 3
R2: 2, 5, 6
R3: 2, 7, 6
R4: 7, 3, 1
R5: 8, 9, 5, 3
R6: 3, 6, 4, 9
R7: 3, 1, 5
R8: 5, 1, 7
R1 - 5, 1, 3
#5 Fedupwiththefed gets the nod after consecutive runner-up finishes, most recently behind Baseball Lady here. She has enough tactical speed to stay involved without needing the lead, and Flavien Prat stays aboard. In a five-horse field, that combination makes her the sensible starting point.
#1 Grace Reformed arrives off a three-length claiming win at Parx. Her 78 speed figure fits, but the move from a $10,000 claimer into this allowance is a substantial class test. Respect the recent win while keeping the company she beat in perspective.
#3 Lady Wisdom rebounded to a 77 figure last time despite some contact, following a disappointing effort against Fedupwiththefed. Her Saratoga win in August shows she can finish the job when the circumstances suit.
Fedupwiththefed has registered enough complaints. Time to collect something.
R2 - 2, 5, 6
#2 Abrigado returns to dirt after an unsuccessful turf experiment. His previous dirt figures of 84 and 85 stand out here, and that 85 came in a decisive six-furlong maiden win. Manny Franco rides for Linda Rice, and the surface switch supplies a straightforward reason to expect better.
#5 Ican, the other Rice runner, returns from a lengthy break. His older dirt form gives him a chance, but readiness is the question. He is a legitimate alternative if Abrigado attracts more money than his price can comfortably carry.
#6 Rule Sixty Two needs a serious rebound after fading badly in his first start following a long layoff. That outing may move him forward, but the recent form demands caution. Antonio Fresu takes over for Rick Dutrow.
The favorite has the clearest excuse. The others need to bring evidence.
R3 - 2, 7, 6
#2 He’s My Kind was beaten only a half-length in a Kentucky Downs maiden last time, earning an 88 figure at today’s seven-furlong distance. He has finished in the money in three of four starts and now makes his first appearance since being reported gelded. Prat returns for Miguel Clement.
#7 Weseeulator finished third here after stumbling at the start in his return from a long absence. He briefly led and kept on, earning a career-best 84. With that race behind him, he has a reasonable case to improve.
#6 Bamboozie made a sizable jump when switched to turf, improving from a 52 dirt figure to an 80. He showed speed, got involved in the fight, and flattened to fourth behind Weseeulator. That was only his second career start, leaving room for another step forward. At 10-1 morning line, he earns a Bomb Squad look.
Bamboozie doesn’t need to fool everybody. Just the tote board.
R4 - 7, 3, 1
#7 Emerald Ember brings the strongest recent figures, with a 76 last time and a runner-up finish two starts back. She drops from starter optional claiming company into this $20,000 claiming race. The important question is surface: her best recent work has been on turf, so she still has to translate that ability to this dirt assignment.
#3 Margarita Molly has been competitive in claiming routes, including a Saratoga second two starts ago. She shortens to six furlongs after a fourth in starter company, offering a different route into the race if the favorite fails to fire.
#1 Amelia’s Echo also cuts back after pressing the pace and weakening at seven furlongs. The shorter trip could help, and her older figures give her a chance to get involved. She does need to finish more strongly than she has lately.
Emerald Ember supplies the spark. Let’s see whether it travels.
R5 - 8, 9, 5, 3
#8 Liberty’s Advance has repeatedly been competitive without getting her picture taken. She showed speed before finishing fourth at seven furlongs last time and now gets blinkers for Bill Mott while trying turf for the first time. The cutback to six furlongs is appealing; the surface remains an unanswered question.
#9 Great Happenings is the interesting returnee. In her lone start, she overcame a bumped start to close for second at a big price, earning a 74 figure. That effort came more than a year ago, so fitness and the move to turf are significant questions. Still, the debut showed enough ability to warrant attention.
#5 It’sgoodtobequeen debuts for Rob Atras with Franco aboard. There is no race record to dissect, but she brings a steady work pattern and an alternative to several runners with things to explain.
#3 Lady Vortex showed early speed before stopping badly in her dirt debut. She now tries turf with some respectable workouts since that race. This is a second-start improvement possibility, not an endorsement of the debut.
R6 - 3, 6, 4, 9
#3 Majestic Moonlight gets back to turf after a disappointing main-track effort. Before that, she finished second twice at Saratoga, including a narrow defeat at this $55,000 maiden claiming level. Prat takes over, and the return to her better surface puts her on top.
#6 Outro has been knocking on the door in similar company. She missed by a nose two starts ago, then finished third, beaten a length, here. Her tactical speed should keep her within reach, and her recent turf form makes her a major player.
#4 Portixol finished behind Majestic Moonlight in her debut but now gets experience and a class drop from maiden special weight company. Clement’s filly does not need to become a different horse overnight—just a better version of the one we saw first time out.
#9 Just Tell Anne is the price horse at 12-1 morning line. Her latest sprint was disappointing, but her previous two turf routes at this claiming level were much more competitive. She was beaten less than a length in July and under two lengths in August. Returning to a route and picking up Franco gives her a credible rebound case.
Just Tell Anne? At that price, perhaps keep the conversation quiet.
R7 - 3, 1, 5
#3 Jackson Heights gets the upset nod while moving down from a $25,000 conditioned claimer. He was beaten less than three lengths last time, and his recent figures have been reasonably steady. This is a class-relief selection rather than a claim that his latest race was spectacular.
#1 Expensive Cut is the obvious danger. He earned a 93 figure while finishing second here last time, briefly leading before being caught. That performance is considerably faster than Jackson Heights’ recent work, and he has three wins at today’s distance. If he repeats it, everyone else has a problem.
#5 Nantz comes off a five-length Finger Lakes win. He also held third in a Saratoga claimer two starts ago, but this is a tougher assignment than his latest victory. He belongs in the discussion without getting carried away by the winning margin.
Jackson Heights gets the nod. Expensive Cut gets the nervous glance.
R8 - 5, 1, 7
#5 Exonerate brings a substantial class edge after competing in allowances and earning figures of 94, 92 and 99 this season. His latest fourth came in a much longer Kentucky Downs race; today he drops into claiming company and shortens to nine furlongs. Franco rides for Brad Cox. There is plenty to like, even if the price offers little mystery.
#1 Newlyn also gets class relief after facing New York-bred allowance and stakes runners. His recent figures are below Exonerate’s, but the easier assignment gives him a reasonable opportunity to improve his finishing position.
#7 Printer’s Alley returns to a turf route after an unsuccessful dirt sprint. His two previous Saratoga turf efforts were both thirds, including a narrow defeat in August. Those races make him much more interesting than the latest running line alone suggests.
Exonerate has the credentials. Hunk would still like to read the fine print before handing over the convertible keys.