SANTA ANITA SUNDAY, OCT 17
Updated: 3 days ago
Two Pick 4s, a few opinions, and absolutely no promise of responsible behavior from the racing gods.
Early Pick 5, Races 1-5 | $.50 base | $270
R1: 6,8,9
R2: 2,3,4,5
R3: 1,2,3,5,6
R4: 1,2,6
R5: 2,9,10
Pick 5 $260.15 - Our saver pick came in - the other two would have paid better
Late Pick 4, Races 6–9 | $1 base | $72
R6: 2,3,5
R7: 1,2,4,5,7,8
R8: 1,4,5,7 - 1 scratched
R9: 2
Total investment: $342
These are the tickets we’re playing. We’ve included a few additional horses below for anyone building their own wagers.
R1: 8,9,1
Velvet Reign gets the nod after three consecutive third-place finishes on grass. She has been showing speed around two turns, and the cutback gives her a chance to finish the assignment before the stamina department gets involved. Storm Lady finished behind her in their last two meetings, but her turf figures keep her in the conversation, and this shorter trip offers a different setup. Kizazi is the price swing from the rail. Her recent form requires forgiveness, imagination, and possibly a small administrative fee, but we’ll use her third behind the more established pair.
R2: 2,5
We’re taking two approaches to this dirt mile. Sweet Gal of Mine brings the strongest established figures, including a career-best 102, but stretches out after turf sprints and still needs to prove this assignment suits her. Angel Baby already answered the distance question with a second in a Del Mar dirt mile, earning a 93 after making the lead in the stretch. That makes her a credible alternative rather than decorative insurance. Jasmine could make us regret leaving her out, but her latest win came against turf maiden claimers. Today asks her to change both company and surface. We’ll make her prove it.
R3: 3,4
Queen Bay and My Girl Mia finished fourth and fifth in the same Del Mar turf sprint, both earning 93 figures. Queen Bay gets Berrios again and should have a chance to stalk, while My Girl Mia returns to Jaramillo, who rode her to a runaway dirt win two starts ago. Both have a reasonable case with the extra furlong.
Another horse we like, not on our ticket: #2 Kintrigue. She earned an 88 despite getting bumped at the start of that same race. Kimura rode her maiden victory and returns here. She needs to improve, but she’s a plausible alternative if you want a third horse. Our ticket budget has declined her application.
R4: 2,6
Piper’s Causeway owns two wins and a second from three Santa Anita dirt starts. His latest runner-up finish wasn’t spectacular on the clock, but his better work makes him dangerous at a familiar venue. Got’m Cot’m comes off consecutive thirds, including a strong late effort after a slow start and checking in his latest turf race. His preceding dirt effort produced a 107, so the surface switch is supported by more than optimism.
Another horse we like, not on our ticket: #1 Supernal. He just missed at Los Alamitos with a 104 figure and has three wins at six furlongs. Leaving him out is a budget decision that we sincerely hope doesn’t become the subject of tomorrow’s apology.
R5: 2,6,9,10
Regal Patriot brings the biggest last-out figure, a 116 from his front-running Del Mar win, but there’s enough other speed here to make an uncontested trip unlikely. Code Duello finished third behind him that day and has been consistently competitive. He could benefit if the leaders start arguing. Known Idea arrives with consecutive wins, most recently a turf mile, and cuts back with Hernandez staying aboard. Smart Code rounds out the ticket after overcoming early trouble to win his latest grass sprint. We’ve covered several ways this can unfold, which almost guarantees the race will invent another one.
R6: 2,3,5
Zuzu’s Classic Gal has the strongest established figures of our three, although much of that work came on turf. She now needs to carry it onto dirt. Volcanologist offers the clearest recent dirt excuse: she stumbled badly last time and still rallied for second. A cleaner departure could make her considerably more dangerous. Genuine Grace disappointed in that same race, but her previous second at six furlongs gives her a route back into contention. Rosario stays aboard. Three chances to get through a maiden race without developing a new facial twitch.
R7: 1,2,4,5,7,8
Divisible By is the obvious starting point after a Del Mar win and a strong second at Kentucky Downs, where he finished well despite a wide trip. We respect him. We’re also using five others, which tells you how comfortable we feel about declaring a winner at ten furlongs. Stamp My Passport has competitive figures against good company, while Sand Bagger steps up after a convincing claiming win. Rostovsky comes off a close third, and News At Ten gets a chance to rebound after failing badly over a longer trip at Kentucky Downs. Essos is the surface-and-distance question mark with Rispoli aboard. This is our spread race. Apparently “all of the above” wasn’t available within budget.
R8: 1,4,5,7
Hurricane Layla returned from a year away and missed by a nose after doing the early work. She’s dangerous if she moves forward from that comeback. Lady Mendelssohn also ran well off a long break, finishing second after a demanding wide trip at Del Mar. Danzing Flyer has won two straight and now gets Hernandez following the claim, though this company asks more of her. Scary Fast Ride brings back class and five wins over this Santa Anita dirt track, making a return to familiar surroundings appealing. Four different cases, and we’d appreciate one of them holding up under questioning.
R9: 2
#2 Nyce Shot, our ticket single
We’re leaning on improvement from Nyce Shot, who finished fourth, beaten two lengths, in her debut at this turf-mile distance after getting bumped twice in upper stretch. Rispoli returns, she draws much better, and a cleaner second start gives her a credible path forward. We’re betting on the improvement rather than pretending she already owns the best résumé.
Two more horses we like, neither on our ticket: #7 Miss Mo Brown and #10 Endless Smoke. Miss Mo Brown finished second in Nyce Shot’s debut race, narrowly missing after taking the lead, and deserves serious respect. Endless Smoke rallied for second in a different Del Mar turf mile, earning a 78, the best last-out figure in this field. Both make sense for anyone building a wider ticket. We’re standing with Nyce Shot because spreading everywhere eventually becomes a charitable contribution to the mutuel pool.
The tickets are ours. The extra opinions are yours to use. With any luck, the excuses can take Sunday off.